TRI Stock of the Day (RIMM)
May 13, 2008
BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (rimm) closed up $9.20/share to $141.97/share an all time high for the Canadian company. Research In Motion released its first new product over the past year. “Bold” the companies new smart phone has a 624-MHz processor and has twice the screen resolution of the Curve. The company sports a PE of 63 and has a 08′ growth rate of 68%.
| 50DMA | $115.50 |
| 5yr. Growth rate | 33.86% |
| ROE | 40% |
TRI Stock of the Day (ATVI)
May 10, 2008
Activision, Inc. (atvi) finished the trading day up $3.94/share or 14.22%. For the fiscal quarter ended March 31st 2008 Activision reported EPS of .14/share vs. estimates of .04/share beating estimates by 250% and beating prior year same quarter EPS by $.19/share. Activision also increased revenue guidance by 3.24% above analyst estimates for the next quarter. Activision is the publisher of gaming hits such as Guitar Hero and Call of Duty. Activision operates in the multimedia and graphics software industry and has a five year earnings growth rate of 20.37%
| ATVI | % gain/loss |
| ytd return | 13.28% |
| 1yr return | 68.21% |
| 2yr return | 139.33% |
TRI Stock of the Day (GHM)
May 7, 2008
Graham Corporation (ghm) has been on a tear recently up 20% in the last month. The Batavia, NY based company that operates in the metal fabrication industry finished the trading day closing up $5.91/share or 10.72%. The company has a market cap of 302M which places it in the small cap category. Its involved in the manufacture and sale of vacuum and heat transfer equipment.
GHM is ranked #1 in EPS Growth, Rev Growth (both Qtrly YoY), and ROE compared to its competitors in the industry. The company also sports a modest PE of 21.40 vs. the industry average of 18.39. The 2008 earnings for Graham are expected to come in 134.2% higher than 07 earnings. A $10,000 investment in the stock one year ago would be worth $42,300 today.
TRI Stock of the Day (GMCR)
May 2, 2008
Starbucks move over Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (gmcr) has come to take the lead. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters finished the trading day up 12.42% or $4/share with a closing price of $36.20/share. Green Mountain’s stock price has posted an 80% return over the past year compared to Starbucks stock price decline of 45%. Green Mountain packages and distributes roasted coffee, hot cocoas, and teas to restuarants, hotels, universities, individual consumers, and various retailers vs. Starbucks who operates retail stores in which they sell their specialized coffee products. Green Mountain is trading at a much larger price to earnings multiple than sbux and peet but it also carries a higher growth rate and has a stronger history of beating analyst’s estimates.
Below is a link to a 2 year chart comparing gmcr, sbux, peet, and cbou
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GMCR#chart2:symbol=gmcr;range=2y;compare=sbux+peet+cbou;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
| Peet’s Coffee | Starbucks | Green Coffee | |
| (peet) | (sbux) | (gmcr) | |
| PE | 36.87 | 19.58 | 56.56 |
| Growth Rate 08 | 19.70% | -2.30% | 44.20% |
| Earn. Surp. Last Q | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.52% |
| ROE | 6.10% | 28.80% | 14.31% |
| Profit Margin | 3.36% | 6.88% | 3.46% |
| Short % of Float | 17.10% | 4.90% | 23.80% |
TRI Stock of the Day (MA)
April 30, 2008
Mastercard Inc. (MA) closed at $273.98 a new 52 week high giving the stock a PE of 40.83. The stock price is up 27.62% year to date. 1st quarter earnings came in at $2.59/share ex. items topping analysts estimates by 29.5%. 2008 Earnings growth are expected to grow at a clip of 51%.
TRI Stock of the Day (BIG)
April 28, 2008
Big Lots, Inc. (BIG) closed up $.98 or 3.81% to $26.73/share following a JP Morgan analyst upgrade. The analyst upgraded Big from neutral to overweight and also increased his earnings estimate for the year to $1.81/share. Big Lots is the nation’s largest broadline closeout retailer and is headquartered in Columbus, OH. The computed profit margin from Big’s last quarter was 6.5%. Year to date Big’s stock price has returned 71.87%. The companies listed below all pay dividends ranging from .8%-1.7% except for Big Lots.
| Discount Variety Store Industry | Big Lots (big) | Walmart (wmt) | Target (tgt) | Costco (cost) | Ind. Avg. |
| PE | 17.3 | 18.35 | 16.17 | 26.7 | 20.59 |
| ROE | 17.10% | 20.42% | 18.42% | 13.38% | |
| Earn. Growth 08′ | 23.40% | 9.60% | 5.70% | 13.70% | |
| Prior 4Qs Avg. Earn. Surp. | 33.10% | -0.08% | -0.83% | 2.40% |
TRI (big) end of year price target: Estimated 08 EPS = 1.74 x earnings surprise rate of 12% = 08 EPS of 1.94 x PE of 20 = Price of $38.80/share. Big Lots has a growth rate that is higher than many of the companies in the industry but is trading at a multiple lower than the industry average.
Also on a side note the GDP number for the first quarter (economists are predicting .2%) will be released on Wednesday in addition the federal reserve meets and is expected to cut rates for the seventh time since last year.
TRI Stock of the Day (DECK)
April 25, 2008
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (deck) was up $24.86/share or 21.28%. For all those long DECK you were coupled with great news after Thursday’s close. 1-the company beat earnings estimates and 2-deckers raised their guidance for the year, as a shareholder you couldn’t possibly ask for anything more.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (deck) is headquartered in Goletta, California and operates in the consumer goods sector. Its products are footwear under the names of Simple, Teva, and UGG. Or you may know these brands better as Teva sandals, Simple shoes, and UGG boots.
The 1Q 2008 results has Deckers off to a great start this year. Earnings per share were reported at .86/share 1Q 08′ vs. .73/share 1Q 07′. Analysts expected earnings of .76/share which results in beating expectations by 13.15%, the results are not bad at all considering the operating environment all of the consumer discretionary companies are operating in.
Deck also raised guidance. They previously estimated earnings to grow at a clip of 21% above 07 earnings, they raised that figure to 27%. In addition they raised the 08 revenue growth rate from 25% to 31%.
The average earnings surprise from the past four quarters is 31.52%. Companies can either surprise to the upside or the downside based on the analyst’s expectations.
Deckers new EPS is 5.22 and based off of Friday’s closing price the stock is trading at a multiple of 27.34. The apparel footwear and accessories industry average PE is 14.47 but the quarterly revenue growth is 56.2% for Deck vs. 5.2% for the industry. Deckers is a growth monster and with this 1st quarter results in the bag it hushed the critics who thought UGGs were just a fad like Crocs.
An important note to add is the last three quarters of 2007 DECK did an outstanding job of increasing its profit margin from 4.29% to 14.94% to 18.2%.
And for those who still don’t believe
| DECK | Beginning Price | Ending Price | % Return |
| 1 year | $71.50 | $142.76 | 99.66% |
| 2 year | $42.71 | $142.76 | 234.25% |
| 5 year | $5.98 | $142.76 | 2287.29% |
If you would have invested $1,000 five years ago into DECK it would be worth $23,872 today and $10,000 would of gotten you $238,729. The key is to find the next Deckers.
There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult. -Warren Buffet
